Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Terhadap Volume Ekspor Kerajinan Rotan Indonesia

Abstract

Kebijakan hilirisasi rotan diterapkan untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah dan daya saing produk rotan Indonesia. Sebagai produsen rotan mentah terbesar di dunia, Indonesia melarang ekspor rotan mentah sejak tahun 2012 untuk mendorong pengembangan industri kerajinan rotan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan hilirisasi dan faktor-faktor ekonomi makro terhadap volume ekspor kerajinan rotan Indonesia ke lima negara tujuan utama, yaitu Amerika Serikat, Jerman, Belanda, Inggris, dan Korea, selama periode 2007–2024. Metode analisis dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis RCA untuk daya saing, serta regresi data panel Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan daya saing ekspor kerajinan rotan meningkat setelah kebijakan hilirisasi diterapkan. Selain itu, kebijakan hilirisasi, nilai tukar riil, harga ekspor, dan jarak ekonomi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor. Sementara itu, GDP per kapita negara tujuan berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 88% menunjukkan bahwa model mampu menjelaskan sebagian besar variasi volume ekspor. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya keberlanjutan kebijakan hilirisasi serta perbaikan kualitas dan desain produk untuk memperluas pasar ekspor.

The rattan downstreaming policy is implemented to increase the added value and competitiveness of Indonesian rattan products. As the world's largest producer of raw rattan, Indonesia has banned the export of raw rattan since 2012 to encourage the development of the rattan handicraft industry. This study aims to analyse the impact of the downstream policy and macroeconomic factors on the volume of Indonesian rattan handicraft exports to five main destination countries, namely the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Korea, during the period 2007-2024. The method of analysis was conducted using RCA analysis for competitiveness, as well as Fixed Effect Model (FEM) panel data regression. The results showed that the competitiveness of rattan handicraft exports increased after the downstream policy was implemented. In addition, the downstream policy, real exchange rate, export price, and economic distance have a significant positive effect on export volume. Meanwhile, GDP per capita of the destination country has a significant negative effect. The coefficient of determination of 88% indicates that the model is able to explain most of the variation in export volume. These findings indicate the importance of continuing downstream policies as well as improving product quality and design to expand export markets.