Penilaian Kewajaran Harga Saham Sektor Properti dengan Metode Discounted Cash Flow dan Relative Valuation

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis harga wajar saham properti menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dengan pendekatan Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) dan Relative Valuation (RV). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis nilai intrinsik saham-saham sektor properti, memberikan rekomendasi investasi dan implikasi strategis bagi perusahaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan mayoritas saham sampel yaitu PWON, SMRA, BSDE dan KIJA, tergolong undervalued sehingga berpotensi memberikan capital gain jangka menengah dan panjang bagi investor dan manajer investasi. Sementara itu, CTRA tergolong fair value dan RISE termasuk overvalued. Untuk perusahaan Summarecon Agung (SMRA), disarankan melakukan refinancing utang atau konversi utang ke ekuitas unuk mengurangi risiko finansial, dengan pertimbangan tingginya Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) sebesar 153% pada tahun 2023. Adapun Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa (RISE) direkomendasikan untuk melakukan diversifikasi bisnis melalui proyek properti mixed-use, mengikuti kesuksesan PWON dalam menciptakan pendapatan keberlanjutan.

This study analyzes the fair price of property shares using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) and Relative Valuation (RV) approaches. The purpose of the study was to analyze the intrinsic value of property sector stocks, provide investment recommendations and strategic implications for companies. The results showed that the majority of the sample stocks, namely PWON, SMRA, BSDE and KIJA, were undervalued, thus potentially providing medium and long term capital gains for investor and investment managers. Meanwhile, CTRA was classified as fair value and RISE as overvalued. For Summarecon Agung (SMRA), it is advisable to refinance the debt or convert debt to equity to reduce financial risk, given the high Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) of 153% in 2023. Meanwhile, Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa (RISE) is recommended to diversify its business through mixed-use property projects, following PWON's success in creating sustainable income.