Analisis Financial Distress dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Ritel di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Abstract

Sektor ritel merupakan sektor yang memberikan kontribusi cukup besar pada PDB. Dimana pada tahun 2020 kontribusi sektor ritel terhadap total Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia sebesar 12,93%. Kenyataan di lapangan berbeda dengan fakta mengenai perkembangan ritel. Rata-rata penjualan riil sektor ritel yang terus menurun sejak tahun 2015, semakin memicu penurunan keuntungan perusahaan. Penurunan keuntungan yang dialami dapat memicu terjadinya kondisi dimana perusahaan mengalami kesulitan keuangan dan tidak mampu membayar kewajiban mereka dan mengalami financial distress. Indeks harga saham di sektor sektor ritel juga mengalami penurunan selama periode 2020-2021. Kondisi yang terjadi pada sektor ritel menarik untuk dikaji lebih lanjut. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) menganalisis perusahaan sektor perdagangan ritel berdasarkan kondisi financial distress-nya; (2) menganalisis pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap financial distress perusahaan sektor perdagangan ritel; (3) menganalisis pengaruh financial distress dan makroekonomi terhadap harga saham saham perusahaan sektor perdagangan ritel. Data penelitian adalah data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan perusahaan, publikasi Bank Indonesia dan data dari Bursa efek Indonesia, literatur serta jurnal pendukung lainnya. Data sekunder terkait dengan analisis rasio keuangan yang mempengaruhi terjadinya financial distress yaitu data return on equity, current ratio, EBITDA/TA, Equity/Total assets, dan total assets turnover. Data sekunder terkait pengaruh DSCR dan faktor makroekonomi terhadap harga saham yaitu data inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis pemetaan, regresi logistik, dan regresi data panel. Berdasarkan analisis pemetaan, perusahaan ritel yang mengalami kondisi financial distress terjadi paling banyak di tahun 2020, dimana pada tahun tersebut merupakan tahun terjadinya pandemi Covid-19. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi logistik, variabel rasio keuangan yaitu ROE dan EQ/TA masing-masing memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap financial distress. Variabel inflasi memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham sektor ritel sedangkan variabel financial distress DSCR tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham. Hasil penelitian menekankan pentingnya manajemen perusahaan secara konsisten menjaga performa perusahaan salah satunya dengan cara memperhatikan rasio-rasio keuangan yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kemungkinan terjadinya financial distress. Selain itu, penting bagi investor mempertimbangkan status perusahaan apakah sudah mencapai tahap deterioration performance atau bahkan cashflow problem selain melihat faktor makroekonomi yang berpengaruh.

The retail sector make an large contribution to GDP. Where in 2020 the retail sector's contribution to Indonesia's total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 12.93%. The reality is different from the facts regarding retail development. Average real sales in the retail sector have continued to decline since 2015, where in further condition can cause a decline in company profits. The decline in profits can cause companies to experience financial distres. The stock price index in the retail sector also experienced a decline during the 2020-2021 period. With the conditions that occur in the retail sector make this problem are interesting to study further. The objectives of this research are (1) analyze companies in the retail trade sector based on their financial distress conditions; (2) analyze the influence of financial ratios on financial distress in retail trade sector companies; (3) analyze the influence of financial distress and macroeconomics on share prices of companies in the retail trade sector. The research use secondary data in the form of company financial reports, Bank Indonesia publications and data from the Indonesian Stock Exchange, literature and other supporting journals. Secondary data related to the analysis of financial ratios that influence the occurrence of financial distress which are; return on equity, current ratio, EBITDA/TA, Equity/Total assets, and total assets turnover. The secondary data related to the influence of DSCR and macroeconomic factors on stock prices which are; inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. To answer the research objectives, this research uses mapping analysis, logistic regression and panel data regression. Based on mapping analysis, the most retail companies experiencing financial distress occurred in 2020, which was the year the Covid-19 pandemic occurred. Based on the results of the logistic regression analysis, the financial ratio variables are ROE and EQ/TA each have a negative and significant influence on financial distress. Inflation variable has a significant influence on stock prices in retail sector. The financial distress variable, DSCR has no significant effect on stock prices. The results of this research emphasize the importance of company management consistently maintaining company performance, one of which is by paying attention to financial ratios which have a significant influence on the possibility of financial distress. Apart from that, it is also important for investors to be able to consider the status of the company, whether it has reached the stage of deteriorating performance or even cash flow problems, apart from looking at the macroeconomic factors that influence it.