Keterkaitan Foreign Direct Investment dan Kredit Perbankan Dual Banking System dengan Sektor Pertanian Negara Anggota Developing Eight (D-8)

Abstract

Kenaikan jumlah penduduk, termasuk di negara anggota D-8, akan diikuti dengan peningkatan kebutuhan pangan. Hal ini memerlukan dukungan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian. Namun demikian kebutuhan pangan ini belum mampu dipenuhi oleh internal anggota D-8 dan justru dipenuhi oleh negara non anggota D-8. Sepanjang tahun 2000-2018 kontribusi sektor pertanian dari negara anggota D-8 terhadap PDB negaranya sebesar 9 persen lebih tinggi dari rata-rata dunia sebesar 4 persen. Namun demikian trend tersebut menunjukkan penurunan. Rasio pembentukan modal tetap bruto terhadap nilai tambah pertanian (rasio investasi pertanian) negara anggota D-8 adalah 10.66 persen lebih rendah dibanding negara-negara benua Eropa sebesar 48-52 persen dan negara-negara di benua Amerika sebesar 20-32 persen Untuk menjawab persoalan ini, sektor pertanian memerlukan peran sektor keuangan. Sektor keuangan merupakan bagian sistem perekonomian yang memungkinkan tersedianya akses pada sumber dana. Pada penelitian ini akan dikaji peran foreign direct investment (FDI) dan peran kredit perbankan dari dual banking system untuk pertumbuhan sektor pertanian di negara D-8. Peran FDI makin penting sejak 2000-an ditandai peningkatan arus masuk modal asing dan partisipasi dalam fragmentasi produksi global di negara berkembang, namun faktor apa yang menjadi penarik investasi khususnya di sektor pertanian negara berkembang perlu diteliti. Di lain pihak dual banking system telah dipraktikkan di negara anggota D- 8 dan memiliki potensi besar untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi namun penelitian secara spesifik bagi sektor pertanian masih terbatas. Berdasarkan latar belakang dan permasalahan yang disampaikan, maka penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang menentukan foreign direct investment sektor pertanian, penawaran kredit pertanian bank umum konvensional, dan penawaran pembiayaan pertanian bank umum syariah, (2) menganalisis keterkaitan sektor keuangan dan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian di negara anggota D-8, (3) menganalisis peran sektor keuangan bagi pembentukan modal tetap bruto sektor pertanian di negara anggota D-8, dan (4) menganalisis stabilitas foreign direct investment sektor pertanian, penawaran kredit pertanian bank umum konvensional, dan penawaran pembiayaan pertanian bank umum syariah pada saat terjadi guncangan variabel makroekonomi. Untuk menjawab tujuan ini, penelitian menggunakan data dari 7 negara anggota D-8 dan data time series sejak 2013 kuartal 4 hingga 2022 kuartal 4. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan 1,2, dan 3. Tujuan 4 menggunakan Panel Vector Autoregression. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang menentukan FDI Pertanian secara keseluruhan Negara D-8dalam jangka panjang dan pendek adalah kapasitas pasar dalam hal ini PDB total. Kenaikan kapasitas pasar akan meningkatkan FDI pertanian dalam jangka pendek namun sebaliknya akan menurunkan FDI pertanian dalam jangka panjang. Penurunan potongan pajak akan

meningkatan daya tarik FDI pertanian sebesar 33 persen dalam jangka panjang. Pada perbankan umum, kebijakan kenaikan suku bunga acuan akan mendorong kenaikan penawaran kredit pertanian namun berbeda dengan kenaikan suku bunga kredit yang justru menurunkan penawaran kredit. Kenaikan suku bunga merupakan sinyal insentif deposan yang mendorong kenaikan dana pihak ketiga perbankan umum. Satu-satunya variabel yang berperan menentukan penawaran kredit pertanian dalam jangka panjang dan pendek adalah risiko produksi pertanian. Untuk perbankan syariah, keputusan menawarkan pembiayaan pertanian sangat ditentukan ketersediaan dana pihak ketiga baik dalam panjang dapat meningkat hingga 5 persen dengan kenaikan dana pihak ketiga. Di lain pihak pembiayaan bermasalah dapat menurunkan penawaran pembiayaan hingga 11 persen dalam jangka panjang. FDI pertanian, kredit pertanian perbankan umum, pembiayaan pertanian bank umum syariah memiliki peran berbeda bagi pertumbuhan sektor pertanian di negara anggota D-8. Pada jangka panjang kredit perbankan umum meningkatkan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian senilai 39 persen sedangkan FDI pertanian senilai 0.99 persen. Peran kredit pertanian bank umum juga penting dalam jangka pendek yang dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian hingga 45 persen ketika dua sektor keuangan lain belum signifikan. Peran bank syariah belum signifikan untuk pertumbuhan sektor pertanian. FDI pertanian dan pembiayaan pertanian bank syariah merupakan alternative untuk investasi sektor pertanian jangka panjang selain kredit pertanian dari perbankan umum. Pada jangka panjang peran perbankan umum dan perbankan syariah secara bersama- sama komplementer dalam dual banking system mendukung investasi sektor pertanian. Stabilitas FDI pertanian, kredit pertanian perbankan umum, pembiayaan pertanian bank umum syariah di negara anggota D-8 berbeda pada guncangan variabel makroekonomi. FDI pertanian lebih stabil dibanding penawaran kredit perbankan dan pembiayaan syariah pada guncangan nilai tukar. Rekomendasi kebijakan dari penelitian adalah perlunya memperhatikan kapasitas pasar dalam hal ini PDB. Nilai PDB yang meningkat dalam jangka panjang di negara D-8 justru menurunkan nilai FDI pertanian karena beralihnya FDI ke sektor lain. Sehingga diperlukan strategi mempertahankan FDI pertanian agar tetap menarik. Sesuai hasil penelitan maka keterjangkauan infrastruktur listrik harus ditingkatkan dan aspek kelembagaan dalam hal ini persentase pajak atas profit dapat diturunkan. Selanjutnya terkait dual banking system, fokus pada risiko pertanian untuk menjaga penawaran kredit pertanian sedangkan pada pembiayaan bank syariah fokus pada pembiayaan bermasalah dan dana pihak ketiga. Walaupun kenaikan risiko produksi pertanian tidak menurunkan penawaran kredit bank umum namun harus didukung dengan kebijakan suku bunga acuan, suku bunga kredit, dan ketersedian dana dari perbankan umum. FDI pertanian lebih potensial sebagai sumber dana pertumbuhan sektor pertanian jangka panjang dibanding kredit pertanian dan pembiayaan pertanian bank syariah karena lebih stabil ketika terdapat guncangan nilai tukar.

kata kunci: FDI pertanian, kredit pertanian, pembiayaan pertanian, dual banking system, pertumbuhan sektor pertanian, Developing Eight

The agricultural sector is important in human life globally and regionally, including in The Developing Eight Economic Cooperation Organization (D-8). A combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around USD 4.8 trillion and a population of around 1.15 billion in 2020 make D-8 one of developing countries' potential economic cooperation groups. The increasing population is accompanied by an increase in food needs, which requires support from the agricultural sector. However, the food needs have not been able to be met by internal D-8 members. The contribution of the agricultural sector from D-8’s member countries is 9 percent, slightly better than the average contribution of the agricultural sector to global GDP in 2000-2018 of 4 percent and the trend shows a decline. The decline in the contribution of the agricultural sector in developing countries is related to the low rate of Gross Fixed Capital Formation of the agriculture sector, the rate shows a different path for developed countries. On average the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to the agricultural added value of D-8’s member countries is 10.66 percent lower than countries of the European continent at 48-52 percent and countries of the American continent at 20-32 percent. To answer this problem, the agricultural sector needs financial sector support. The financial sector is a part of the economic system that allows access to sources of funds. This research examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the role of credit from the dual banking system for the growth of the agricultural sector in D-8 countries. The role of FDI has become increasingly important since the 2000s, marked by an increase in foreign capital inflows and participation in the fragmentation of global production in developing countries, but what factors attract investment, especially in the agricultural sector of developing countries, need to be researched. On the other hand, the dual banking system has been practiced in D-8 member countries and has great potential for economic growth, but research specifically for the agricultural sector is still limited. Based on the background and problems presented, this research aims to (1) analyze the factors that determine foreign direct investment in the agricultural sector, the supply of agricultural credit from conventional banks, and the supply of agricultural financing from Sharia banks, (2) analyze the relationship between the financial sector and growth of the agricultural sector in D-8 member countries, (3) analyze the role of the financial sector in the formation of the agricultural gross fixed capital formation in D-8 member countries, and (4) analyze the stability of foreign direct investment in the agricultural sector, the supply of agricultural credit from conventional banks, and the supply of agricultural financing from sharia banks during the shock of macroeconomic variables. The research uses data from seven members of D-8 and time series data from 2013 quarter 4 to 2022 quarter 4. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag is used to answer the first, second, and third objectives while Panel Vector Auto Regression is used to answer the fourth.

The result shows that the factors that determine agricultural FDI in D-8 countries in the long and short term are market capacity. An increase in market capacity will increase agricultural FDI in the short term but on the contrary, will reduce agricultural FDI in the long term. The reduction in tax deductions will increase the attractiveness of agricultural FDI by 33 percent in the long term. In conventional banking, the increasing of the central bank policy rate will encourage an increase in the supply of agricultural credit, on the other hand, an increase in loan rates will reduce the supply of credit. The increase in interest rates is a signal of depositor incentives that encourage an increase in third-party funds in conventional banking. The only variable that determines the supply of agricultural credit in the long and short term is the risk of agricultural production. For Sharia banking, the decision to offer agricultural financing is largely determined by the availability of third-party funds, which can increase the supply by 5 percent. On the other hand, non-performing financing can reduce the supply of agricultural financing by 11 percent in the long term. Agricultural FDI, agricultural credit from conventional banking, and agricultural financing from Sharia banking have different roles in the growth of the agricultural sector in D-8 member countries. In the long term, agricultural credit from conventional banking increases agricultural sector growth by 39 percent, while agricultural FDI is worth by 0.99 percent. The role of agricultural credit from conventional banking is also important in the short term, which can increase the growth of the agricultural sector by 45 percent while the other two financial sectors are not significant. The role of Sharia banks is not yet significant for the growth of the agricultural sector. Agricultural FDI and agricultural financing from Sharia banking are alternatives for long-term agricultural sector investment besides agricultural credit from conventional banking. Conventional banking and Sharia banking are complementary to each other in a dual banking system to support investment in the agricultural sector. The stability is different between agricultural FDI, agricultural credit from conventional banking, and agricultural financing from Sharia banking from shocks to macroeconomic variables. The agricultural FDI is more stable than the supply of agricultural credit from the dual banking system during exchange rate shocks. The supply of agricultural credit from the dual banking system responds positively to the shock of the central bank policy rate. The policy recommendations from the research are: (1) to increase and maintain agricultural FDI (i) concerned to market capacity namely the country’s GDP, (ii) the affordability of electricity infrastructure, and (iii) the institutional aspect by reducing the percentage on tax profits. Furthermore, regarding the dual banking system : (2) Focus on agricultural risks to maintain agricultural credit from conventional banking and (3) Focus on non-performing financing and third-party funds of Sharia banking. Even though the increase in production risk does not reduce the supply of commercial bank credit, it must be supported by policies on central bank policy rates, loan rates, and the availability of third-party funds. (4) Agricultural FDI has the potential to be a source of funding for long-term agricultural sector growth compared to agricultural credit and Sharia bank agricultural financing due to the stability from the exchange rate shock.

keywords: agricultural FDI, agricultural credit, agricultural financing, agricultural sector growth, dual banking system, D-8