Penentuan Premi Asuransi Livestock Gross Margin untuk Sapi Pedaging dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo

Abstract

Asuransi Livestock Gross Margin Cattle (LGM-Cattle) adalah asuransi yang melindungi peternak sapi saat menjual sapi yang telah digemukkan melalui yearling atau calf finishing dengan mengurangi risiko kerugian gross margin. Gross margin adalah selisih harga penjualan ternak dewasa dengan biaya pakan dan harga sapi anakan. Penentuan premi asuransi LGM-Cattle pada tahun 2014 memerlukan data gross margin guarantee tahun 2014 dan simulated gross margin tahun 2014 yang dihasilkan dari metode simulasi Monte Carlo dengan model parametrik dari data gross margin tahun 2000-2013. Estimasi kerugian berdasarkan selisih positif gross margin guarantee dan simulated gross margin digunakan untuk menentukan premi. Dari hasil perhitungan, tingkat premi calf finishing lebih tinggi daripada yearling finishing.

Livestock Gross Margin Cattle (LGM-Cattle) insurance is a policy that protects cattle farmers when selling fattened cattle through yearling or calf finishing, reducing the risk of gross margin losses. Gross margin is the difference between the selling price of adult cattle, the costs of feed, and the price of young cattle. Determining LGM-Cattle insurance premiums in 2014 requires gross margin guarantee data from 2014 and simulated gross margin data from 2014 generated through the Monte Carlo simulation method with parametric models based on gross margin data from 2000 to 2013. Loss estimates based on the positive difference between the gross margin guarantee and simulated gross margin were used to determine the premium. The calculations showed that the premium rate for calf finishing was higher than yearling finishing.