Model Ketersediaan Susu Mendukung Pengembangan Sistem Agribisnis Sapi Perah di Indonesia

Abstract

Kondisi eksisting menunjukkan bahwa produksi susu Indonesia hanya berkontribusi sebesar 22,74% terhadap permintaan susu nasional, sehingga kebutuhan susu masih bergantung pada impor. Upaya akselerasi peningkatan ketersediaan susu di Indonesia hingga kini masih dihadapkan dengan berbagai permasalahan dari hulu-hilir. Permasalahan dalam penyediaan susu tersebut tidak dapat lagi diselesaikan secara parsial, namun membutuhkan pendekatan sistem secara holistik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (a) menganalisis dinamika keragaan penawaran dan permintaan susu; (b) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penawaran dan permintaan susu; (c) membangun dan menganalisis model ketersediaan susu nasional mendukung pengembangan sistem agribisnis sapi perah; dan (d) merumuskan rekomendasi alternatif kebijakan dan strategi akselerasi ketersediaan susu di Indonesia. Sumber data menggunakan data sekunder lingkup nasional dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Kementerian Pertanian, Kemenko Bidang Perekonomian, Kementerian Perindustrian, dan FAO. Data kuantitatif pendukung diperoleh dari koperasi, GKSI, peternak, dan sampel perusahaan pengolah susu dan telaah kebijakan menggunakan hasil Focus Group Discussion (FGD) dan Rountable Meeting (RTM) tentang sapi perah dan persusuan di Indonesia. Model ketersediaan susu dalam penelitian ini dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamik meliputi analisis kebutuhan, formulasi masalah, identifikasi sistem (causal loop diagram dan black box diagram), formulasi model (stock and flow diagram), validasi model (struktur dan output) dan simulasi model beserta analisis sensitivitas. Pemodelan sistem dinamik dianalisis menggunakan Powersim Studio 10 Academic. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa populasi sapi perah dan produksi susu Indonesia tersentra di Pulau Jawa meliputi Jawa Timur, Jawa Tengah, dan Jawa Barat. Variabel populasi induk, produksi susu, produktivitas, tarif impor, harga susu domestik, harga susu impor, volume impor, nilai tukar, konsumsi susu per kapita, jumlah penduduk, dan pendapatan menjadi variabel kunci dalam model. Pada kondisi basis meskipun produksi susu domestik, pangsa produksi susu domestik dan profit meningkat positif, namun defisit ketersediaan susu masih terus meningkat dengan laju 4,06%/tahun. Tanpa intervensi skenario kebijakan, pada kondisi basis pangsa produksi susu domestik sebesar 27,64% pada tahun 2045 masih jauh dari target pangsa produksi susu domestik terhadap permintaan sebesar 60% dalam cetak biru persusuan Indonesia. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa laju konsumsi susu paling responsif terhadap penurunan neraca ketersediaan dan penurunan pangsa produksi susu domestik, sedangkan penyediaan induk sapi paling responsif terhadap peningkatan profit. Kebijakan optimis skenario 7 melalui peningkatan penyediaan induk sapi dan program rearing, peningkatan conception rate, peningkatan konsumsi susu, dan tarif impor secara bersama-sama terbaik dalam mengungkit peningkatan pangsa produksi susu domestik, penurunan defisit ketersediaan susu dan peningkatan profit peternak secara kumulatif.

The existing conditions indicate that Indonesia's dairy production only contributes 22.74% to dairy demand, resulting in a continued import dependency to fulfill dairy demand. The acceleration of increasing the dairy supply in Indonesia still faces various problems, from upstream to downstream. These milk supply issues can no longer be addressed partially but require a holistic systems approach. This research aims to (a) examine the dynamics of the dairy supply and demand, (b) analyze the factors that affect the dairy supply and demand, (c) build and analyze a national dairy supply model to support the development of a dairy cow agribusiness system, and (d) formulate alternative policy recommendations and strategies for accelerating the dairy supply in Indonesia. A system dynamics approach was used to answer the research objectives. Data sources were obtained from secondary data, including BPS-Statistics Indonesia, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Industry, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Quantitative data were also obtained from cooperatives, GKSI, farmers, and samples of dairy processing companies and several Focus Group Discussions (FGD) and Roundtable meeting (RTM) activities on dairy cows and the dairy industry topics. The dairy supply model was analyzed using a system dynamic approach, which included several stages consisting of the required analysis, problem formulation, system identification (causal loop diagrams and black box diagrams), model formulation (stock and flow diagrams), model validation (structure and output), and model simulation along with sensitivity analysis. The modeling tool was Powersim Studio 10 Academic. The results showed that Indonesia's dairy cow population and dairy production are concentrated on Java Island, particularly in East Java, Central Java, and West Java. Key variables in the model include the breeding cow population, milk production, productivity, import tariffs, domestic milk prices, imported milk prices, import volume, exchange rates, per capita dairy consumption, population size, and income. Under the baseline conditions, although domestic dairy production, domestic dairy production share, and profit increase positively, the dairy deficit continues to rise by 4.06% per year. Without policy intervention scenarios, the domestic dairy production share will reach only 27.64% by 2045, falling significantly short of the target of 60% domestic dairy production share against demand in the Indonesian dairy blueprint. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that the dairy consumption rate was most responsive to changes in dairy supply balance and domestic dairy production share, while dairy cow import was most responsive to changes in profit. The optimistic policy in scenario 7, increased breeding stock provision and rearing programs, improved conception rate, increased dairy consumption, and import tariff protection, proves to be the most effective scenario in increasing the domestic dairy production share, reducing the dairy supply deficit, and enhancing cumulative profits for farmers.