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Title: | Analisis Sebaran Bersama antara Curah Hujan, Hari Tanpa Hujan, ENSO, dan IOD Berbasis Partially Nested Archimedean 4-Copula |
Authors: | Nurdiati, Sri Mas'oed, Teduh Wulandari Rahmawati, Dewi |
Issue Date: | 2023 |
Publisher: | IPB University |
Abstract: | Penurunan suhu permukaan laut adalah dampak dari terjadinya fenomena
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negatif dan fase hangat El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). Hal tersebut secara tidak langsung berpengaruh kepada berkurangnya
intensitas curah hujan. Oleh karena itu, kekeringan dapat terjadi dan menjadi
pemicu kebakaran hutan dan lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membentuk
sebaran bersama antara curah hujan, hari tanpa hujan, ENSO, dan IOD di
Kalimantan. Data dikelompokkan berdasarkan kondisi musim yaitu musim
kemarau dan hujan. Sebaran bersama dari seluruh data diperoleh setelah tiga kali
pembentukan fungsi copula bivariat atau biasa disebut dengan partially nested
Archimedean 4-copula. Parameter copula diestimasi berdasarkan metode Inference
of Function for Margins (IFM). Hasil fitting parameter copula menunjukkan bahwa
copula BB1 dan BB7 adalah copula yang paling cocok, masing-masing untuk
membentuk sebaran bersama antar indikator pada musim kemarau dan hujan. The decrease in sea surface temperature is the result of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon and the warm phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This indirectly affects in decreasing rainfall intensity (precipitation). Therefore, a drought can occur and trigger forest and land fires. This study aims to establish a joint distribution between precipitation, dry spells, ENSO, and IOD in Kalimantan. Data are grouped based on seasonal conditions, namely dry and rainy seasons. The joint distribution of all data is obtained after three times formation of a bivariate copula function or commonly referred to as partially nested Archimedean 4-copula. Copula parameters are estimated based on the Inference Function method for Margins (IFM). The result of fitting the copula parameter shows that copulas BB1 and BB7 are the most suitable copulas, respectively, to form a joint distribution between indicators in the dry and rainy seasons. |
URI: | http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/123143 |
Appears in Collections: | UT - Mathematics |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cover - Daftar Lampiran TA Dewi Rahmawati.pdf Restricted Access | Cover | 1.76 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Draft Final TA Dewi Rahmawati.pdf Restricted Access | Full Text | 7.16 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Lampiran TA Dewi Rahmawati.pdf Restricted Access | Lampiran | 1.01 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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