Integrasi Spasial Pasar Beras Saat Covid-19 di Indonesia

Abstract

Beras merupakan komoditas pokok yang sangat penting dan perannya sangat strategis terhadap kebutuhan pangan masyarakat Indonesia. Keberadaan daerah surplus dan defisit beras menyebabkan terjadinya arus perdagangan beras antar daerah untuk menutupi kesenjangan kebutuhan pada daerah defisit. Arus perdagangan ini akan menyebabkan terbentuknya suatu keterkaitan antara pasar daerah menjadi suatu sistem perdagangan yang terintegrasi. Adanya kebijakan pemerintah terkait pembatasan wilayah antar provinsi di Indonesia selama pandemi Covid-19 berdampak terhambat nya aliran perdagangan tersebut. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis disparitas harga beras sebelum dan saat Covid-19 serta menganalisis integrasi spasial pasar beras. Penelitian ini menggunakan data harian di tingkat konsumen terbagi menjadi dua periode sebelum Covid-19 dari 1 Agustus 2018 hingga 2 Maret 2020 dan saat Covid-19 dari 3 Maret 2020 hingga 31 Agustus 2021. Provinsi yang digunakan terdiri dari 10 provinsi acuan dan provinsi lainnya di asumsikan sebagai provinsi pengikut. Data harga penelitian ini di peroleh dari Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis (PHPS). Metode dalam menjawab disparitas harga yaitu dengan menghitung nilai koefisien variasi sedangkan integrasi spasial pasar beras dijawab dengan melakukan Uji Kointegrasi Johansen, Kausalitas Granger, dan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil Penelitian menunjukan sistem pemasaran beras antar provinsi di Indonesia sudah efisien terlihat pada hasil penelitian yang menunjukan disparitas harga beras tidak signifikan bahkan saat pandemi Covid-19 dimana nilai koefisien variasi (CV) antar waktu dan antar wilayah tidak menunjukan fluktuasi yang tinggi. CV antar wilayah memiliki nilai yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan antar waktu. Hasil pengujian kointegrasi menunjukan seluruh kombinasi pasangan pasar memiliki hubungan kointegrasi dalam jangka panjang namun Wilayah Indonesia Timur memiliki integrasi yang lemah. Sebaliknya, dalam jangka pendek provinsi acuan defisit lebih banyak terintegrasi dibandingkan acuan surplus. Provinsi defisit tersebut yaitu Jakarta dan Papua yang memiliki kecepatan penyesuaian menuju titik ekuilibrium jangka panjang paling tinggi dibandingkan provinsi lainnya ketika terjadinya shock atau perubahan harga. Variabel dummy Covid-19 tidak signifikan mempengaruhi integrasi spasial pasar beras dalam jangka pendek hal ini dikarenakan pemerintah cukup menjaga ketersediaan dan harga beras agar tetap stabil dengan adanya bantuan sembako beras selama Covid-19 serta penyerapan beras petani oleh BULOG saat panen raya, sebaliknya dalam jangka panjang saat Covid-19 berdampak signifikan. Hal ini mengindikasikan jika Covid-19 berlangsung cukup lama akan menurunkan integrasi antar wilayah karena setiap provinsi akan berupaya menjaga pasokan nya. Hasil kausalitas juga menunjukan Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat, Sulawesi Selatan, Riau, dan Jakarta merupakan pemimpin harga (leading) sebaliknya provinsi lainnya merupakan pengikut (following).

Rice as a staple commodity is very important and very important for the strategy to the food needs of the Indonesian people. However, the rice production area is still on the island of Java. surpluses and deficits in the existence of regions cause trade flows between regions to cover the needs of deficit areas. This trade flow will lead to the formation of a linkage between regional markets into an integrated trading system. However, government policies related to inter-provincial regions in Indonesia during the Covid-19 pandemic have hampered the flow of trade. So this study aims to analyze the disparity of rice prices before and during Covid-19 and analyze the spatial integration of the rice market. The data used is daily data at the consumer level. The method used in this study is the Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and multiple linear regression. This study uses daily data at the consumer level which is divided into two periods before Covid-19 from 1 August 2018 to 2 March 2020 and during Covid-19 from 3 March 2020 to 31 August 2021. The provinces used to consist of 10 reference provinces and other provinces. assumed to be a vassal province. Price data for this study were obtained from the Information Center for Strategic Food Prices (PHPS). The method used in answering price disparities is by calculating the value of the coefficient of variation while the spatial integration of the rice market is answered by carrying out the Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The research results show that the inter-provincial rice marketing system in Indonesia is efficient as can be seen in the results of the research which showed that rice price disparities were not significant even during the Covid-19 pandemic where the coefficient of variation (CV) between times and between regions did not show high fluctuations. CV between regions has a higher value than between time. The results of the cointegration test show that all combinations of market pairs have a long-term cointegration relationship, but the eastern part of Indonesia has weak integration. On the contrary in the short term, the deficit reference province is more integrated than the surplus reference. The deficit provinces, namely Jakarta and Papua, have the highest speed of adjustment towards the long-term equilibrium point compared to other provinces when shocks or price changes occur. The Covid-19 dummy variable does not significantly affect the spatial integration of the rice market in the short term, this is because the government is sufficient to maintain the availability and price of rice to remain stable with the assistance of rice basic necessities during Covid-19 and the absorption of farmers rice by BULOG during the main harvest, on the contrary in the long term. long when Covid-19 had a significant impact. This indicates that if Covid-19 lasts long enough it will reduce integration between regions because each province will try to fulfill its supply. The causality results also show that East Java, West Java, South Sulawesi, Riau, and Jakarta are the leading price leaders while other provinces are the following.