Pengaruh Harga Beras dan Determinan Lain terhadap Spillover Effect Inflasi Antar Ibu Kota Provinsi di Indonesia

Abstract

Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak pada perubahan keseimbangan permintaan dan penawaran agregat pada komoditas pangan strategis sehingga menyebabkan fluktuasi harga sehingga mempengaruhi tingkat inflasi yang merupakan indakator kestabilan perekonomian negara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh interaksi spasial harga beras dan determinan lain seperti upah minimum provinsi, suku bunga kredit, kredit UMKM dan pandemi Covid-19 terhadap inflasi di 34 ibu kota provinsi di Indonesia. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menganalisis keterkaitan spillover effect inflasi antar 34 ibu kota provinsi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis panel spasial dengan tahun penelitian yaitu 2018-2021. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat interaksi spasial yang positif dan keterkaitan spillover effect inflasi yang signifikan. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi harga beras (positif signifikan), upah minimum provinsi (negatif signifikan), suku bunga kredit (negatif signifikan), kredit UMKM (negatif signifikan) dan faktor eksternal pandemi Covid-19 (negatif signifikan), terhadap interaksi spasial dan keterkaitan spillover effect inflasi di 34 ibu kota provinsi di Indonesia.

The Covid-19 pandemic has an impact on changes in the balance of aggregate demand and supply for strategic food commodities, causing price fluctuations that affect the inflation rate which is the stability of the country's economy. This study aims to see the effect of the spatial interaction of rice prices and other determinations such as the provincial minimum wage, loan interest rates, MSME loans and the Covid-19 pandemic on inflation in 34 provincial capital cities in Indonesia. In addition, this study also analyzes the correlation between the spillover effects of inflation among 34 provincial capital cities in Indonesia. This study uses spatial panel analysis with the research year 2018-2021. The results showed that there was a positive spatial interaction and a significant correlation between the spillover effect of inflation. Based on the estimated rice price (significantly positive), the provincial minimum wage (significantly negative), loan interest rates (significantly negative), MSME credit (significantly negative) and the external factors of the Covid-19 pandemic (significantly negative), on spatial interactions and spillover linkages of influence inflation in 34 provincial capital cities in Indonesia.