Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/112336
Title: | Analisis Model SEIRU pada Kasus COVID-19 di Jakarta |
Other Titles: | SEIRU Model Analysis on Jakarta’s COVID-19 Cases |
Authors: | Bukhari, Fahren Kusnanto, Ali Dilla, Septia Rahma |
Issue Date: | 2022 |
Publisher: | IPB University |
Abstract: | Sejak masa awal penyebaran COVID-19, banyak negara yang menerapkan
kebijakan pembatasan aktivitas publik guna menekan laju penularan COVID-19.
Pemerintah Indonesia memilih menerapkan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar
(PSBB) yang pertama kali diterapkan di Provinsi DKI Jakarta. Efek kebijkan yang
diterapkan dapat diteliti menggunakan model epidemi SEIRU. Model epidemi
SEIRU merupakan model epidemi dengan periode laten yang memperhitungkan
efek kebijakan pembatasan aktivitas publik. Pada penelitian ini penulis telah
mengimplementasi model SEIRU pada kasus COVID-19 di Jakarta, mengevaluasi
parameter yang paling sesuai dalam merepresentasikan kasus COVID-19 Jakarta,
serta mengetahui efek sistem pemberlakukan PSBB Jakarta terhadap kesesuaian
implementasi model. Implementasi dilakukan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman
Julia. Hasil implementasi menunjukkan bahwa model SEIRU sesuai untuk
menggambarkan dinamika kasus COVID-19 sampai akhir masa pemberlakuan
PSBB pertama, namun tidak sesuai untuk masa perpanjangan pemberlakuan PSBB.
Didapatkan pula perkiraan efek PSBB yang diterapkan dapat menurunkan jumlah
kasus terlapor sebanyak 41% dengan rata-rata waktu individu infektif di Jakarta tak
memiliki gejala ialah 7 hari dan rata-rata durasi periode latennya adalah 6 jam. Since the early days of the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented policies to limit public activities due to reducing the transmission rate of COVID-19. The Indonesian government chooses to implement the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) which were first implemented in DKI Jakarta Province. The effect of the applied policy can be studied using the SEIRU epidemic model. The SEIRU epidemic model is an epidemic model with a latency period that takes into account the effects of public activity restriction policies. In this research, the author will implement the SEIRU model on Jakarta’s COVID-19 cases, evaluate the parameters that are most suitable in representing the Jakarta’s COVID-19 cases, and determine the effect of the Jakarta’s PSBB system on the suitability of the model implementation. The implementation is done by using the Julia programming language. The result of the implementation shows that the SEIRU model is suitable for describing the dynamics of the COVID-19 case until the end of the first period of PSBB, but it is not suitable for the extension period of the PSBB. It is also found that the PSBB could reduce the number of reported cases by 41% with the average time of the infective individuals in Jakarta without symptoms is 7 days and the average duration of the latent period is 6 hours. |
URI: | http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/112336 |
Appears in Collections: | UT - Mathematics |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cover.pdf Restricted Access | Cover | 781.44 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
G54170059_Septia Rahma Dilla.pdf Restricted Access | Fullteks | 1.73 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Lampiran.pdf Restricted Access | Lampiran | 633.15 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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