Pengaruh Asimetris Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Ekspor Sektor Pertanian Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia menganut sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas dengan sistem nilai tukar tergantung mekanisme permintaan dan penawaran mata uang di pasar valuta asing. Namun sistem ini memiliki kelemahan yaitu nilai tukar mudah mengalami depresiasi dan apresiasi sehingga pergerakan nilai tukar cenderung memiliki tren fluktuasi. Nilai tukar menjadi hal menarik untuk diteliti karena pengaruhnya terhadap perekonomian suatu negara, salah satunya adalah ekspor sektor pertanian. Pergerakan ekspor mengikuti pergerakan nilai tukar. Sedangkan sistem mekanisme transaksi ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia menggunakan sistem kontrak, sehingga menyebabkan pergerakan ekspor tidak mengikuti pergerakan nilai tukar jika dibandingkan dari bulan ke bulan. Berdasarkan hal terebut, maka mengindikasikan bahwa terdapat efek asimetris nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia. Namun pada penelitian terdahulu umumnya mengabaikan adanya efek asimetris nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor yang mungkin saja dapat terjadi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian bertujuan: (1) Menganalisis pengaruh asimetris nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia. (2) Menganalisis perbedaan perubahan ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia yang dipengaruhi oleh efek apresiasi dan efek depresiasi rupiah. Data penelitian berjenis data sekunder. Periode data menggunakan data bulanan selama 169 bulan (Januari 2006 sampai Januari 2020). Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Nonlinier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), untuk menganalisis efek asimetris yang mungkin dimiliki nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) Terdapat efek asimetris nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia pada jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. (2) Perubahan ekspor sektor pertanian merespon positif ketika efek apresiasi pada lag 1 dan efek depresiasi pada lag 2 pada estimasi jangka pendek. Pada hasil estimasi jangka panjang, perubahan ekspor sektor pertanian memiliki efek negatif ketika apresiasi dan depresiasi rupiah. Perubahan ekspor sektor pertanian lebih besar dipengaruhi efek depresiasi dibandingkan efek apresiasi. Kata kunci: asimetris, ekspor pertanian Indonesia, NARDL, nilai tukar rupiah

Indonesia adheres to a free-floating exchange rate system with an exchange rate system, depending on the demand and supply mechanism for currency in the foreign exchange market. However, this system has a weakness, namely the exchange rate is easy to depreciate and appreciate so that exchange rate movements tend to have a fluctuating trend. The exchange rate is an interesting thing to study because of its influence on the country's economy, one of which is the export of the agricultural sector. Export movements follow exchange rate movements. Meanwhile, the export transaction mechanism system for the Indonesian agricultural sector uses a contract system, so that export movements do not follow exchange rate movements when compared from month to month. Based on this, it shows that there is an asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the Indonesian agricultural sector. However, previous research generally ignores the asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on the possibility of exports. Therefore, the research aims: (1) Analyze the asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the Indonesian agricultural sector. (2) Analyzing the differences in changes in exports of the Indonesian agricultural sector which are influenced by the effect of appreciation and the effect of depreciation of the rupiah. The research data are secondary data. The data period uses monthly data for 169 months (January 2006 to January 2020).The research method used is Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), to analyze the possible asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the Indonesian agricultural sector. The results of the study indicate that: (1) There is an asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the Indonesian agricultural sector in the short and long term. (2) Changes in exports of the agricultural sector respond positively when the effect of appreciation on lag 1 and depreciation effect on lag 2 on short-term estimates. In the long-term estimation results, changes in exports from the agricultural sector have a negative effect when the rupiah appreciates and depreciates. Changes in exports of the agricultural sector are more influenced by the effect of depreciation than the effect of appreciation. Keywords: agricultural export Indonesian, asymmetric, NARDL, Rupiah exchange rate