Kinerja Ekspor dan Estimasi Fungsi Permintaan Ekspor Wooden Furnitures Indonesia

Abstract

Nilai ekspor wooden furnitures Indonesia pada tahun 2007 adalah USD 1.5 miliar dan menurun menjadi USD 1.1 miliar pada tahun 2018, suatu penurunan sebesar 31.9% atau 3.4% per tahun, di sisi lain pada periode yang sama pertumbuhan ekspor wooden furnitures dunia meningkat sebesar 5.8% atau 0.5% per tahun. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kinerja ekspor wooden furnitures Indonesia dan mengestimasi fungsi permintaan ekspor wooden furnitures Indonesia oleh dunia agar mengetahui pertumbuhan ekspor dalam rangka mengembangkan industri wooden furnitures Indonesia di masa depan. Kinerja ekspor dianalisis menggunakan Constant Market Share (CMS) untuk mengukur dinamika pertumbuhan ekspor wooden furnitures Indonesia. Estimasi fungsi permintaan ekspor produk wooden furnitures dianalisis dengan regresi panel data. Tiga macam pendekatan yang digunakan dalam mengestimasi model dalam panel data yaitu model pooled (Pooled Least Square), model efek tetap (Fixed Effect), dan model efek acak (Random Effect). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekspor produk wooden furnitures Indonesia pada periode 2007-2018 menurun dengan tajam terutama disebabkan oleh menurunnya faktor daya saing, diikuti oleh faktor komposisi komoditas dan faktor distribusi pasar. Efek positif pertumbuhan standar yang merefleksikan peningkatan ekspor dunia tidak cukup besar untuk mengatasi penurunan ekspor tersebut. Fungsi permintaan ekspor produk wooden furnitures Indonesia dapat diestimasi menggunakan model efek tetap dengan nilai elastisitas harga relatif, elastisitas pendapatan, dan adjusted R2 berturut-turut -0.45, 0.8, dan 0.99. Variasi permintaan ekspor wooden furnitures Indonesia dapat dijelaskan dengan sangat baik.

Kata kunci: CMS, fungsi permintaan ekspor, kinerja ekspor, regresi panel data

The export value of Indonesian wooden furnitures in 2007 was USD 1.5 billion and decreased to USD 1.1 billion in 2018, a decreased of 31.9% or 3.4%/year. On the other hand, the growth of global wooden furnitures export increased by 5.8% or 0.5%/year in the same period. This study aims to analyze export performance and estimate export demand function of Indonesia wooden furnitures that would be used for policy development of Indonesia wooden furnitures industry. Export performance was analyzed using Constant Market Share (CMS) and estimation export demand function was analyzed using panel data regression. Three types of approaches were used in estimating models in panel data, which were pooled least square model, fixed effect model, and random effect model. The results showed that the export performance of wooden furnitures in 2007-2018 sharply declined mainly due to the decline in competitiveness, followed by commodity composition effect and market distribution effect. The positive effect of global market growth reflects an increase of Indonesia export but it was not large enough to overcome the decline of export. The export demand function of Indonesian wooden furnitures can be estimated using fixed effect model. The values of relative price elasticity, income elasticity and adjusted R2 were found to be -0,45, 0,8, and 0,99, respectively. The variations in export demand of Indonesian wooden furnitures could be explained very well. .

Keywords: CMS, export demand function, export performance, panel data regression