Hubungan antara perdagangan terbuka dan pengembangan sector keuangan di negara-negara Asia Timur dan Asia Selatan

Abstract

Trading activities play an important role in expanding economic growth. The government can either isolate trading or open trading to other countries. It is possible for a country to be open to trade without financial development. Trade openness and financial development are linked; one part cannot be sustained without the other part. There is a debate regarding the link between these two sectors are stronger in middle income countries or high-income countries. Some studies believe the relationship between these two sectors seem stronger in developed countries while some in developing countries. The link between these two sectors are still inconclusive, thus this research regarding this issue need to be taken in East Asian and South Asian countries. In this study, we analyse data set from 12 countries over the period of 2000 to 2016. The data for financial development is collected by Beck, Demirgüç-Kunt, Čihák, Feyen, and Levine (2018) in Financial Structure Database. Three bankbased financial development measurements are used: liquid liabilities (llgdp), bank assets (dbagdp) and private credit (pcrdbofgdp). Liquid liabilities are defined by the sum of demand and currency and interest-bearing liabilities of financial institutions, divided by GDP. It is usually used as an indicator for financial depth. Bank assets are the value of claims on domestic real nonfinancial sector by deposit money banks as GDP share. Private credit is equal to the value of credits by banks and non-banks to private sector divided by GDP. The data for trade openness is collected from World Development Indicator, published by World Bank (2019). As an indicator in trade openness, trade share is used, in which the logarithm of sum of imports and exports divide GDP (lto). In order to strengthen the results, this research also used controls variables between financial development and trade openness. This study estimates the long- and short-run relationships between trade openness and financial development in East Asian and South Asian countries over the period 2000-2016. Comparing a pooled mean group (PMG) estimator and a mean group (MG) estimator. The regressions are separated based on income levels and regions. The results emphasize that a pooled error correction term predicts that there is a long run relationship between trade openness and financial development. However, only bank assets are insignificant in any regressions. In the short run, mostly financial development indicators are insignificant on trade openness in highand- middle income countries. In addition, robustness test outlines the relationship between trade openness and financial development are insignificant in the long run and short run. It means that the relationship between trade and finance are influenced by omitted variables.