Analysis and predictive catch for skipjack tuna (katsuwonus pelamis) in buton region waters south east sulawesi

Abstract

One of the effort to predict the Skipjack catch is determined by environmental factors; for instance the local climate (wind speed, obstruct wind, rainfall, sun intensity, air temperature), the global climate (ENSO) and oceanography factor (Sea Level Temperature). This study was conducted to determine the affecting of climate and oceanography factor to Skipjack catch. The data is analyzed by using the discriminant Analysis. The result of this research showed that the most of affecting factor toward the catch are wind obstruct and ENSO. The accurate of dscriminant analysis in determining the catch category show ed that value of the model is 84% and to predict of cross validations is 86%. The Correlations of Wind obstruct and ENSO to the catch are described by function 1 : Z1 =22.088+0.009 X1+ 0.754 X2, function 2: Z2 =-1,557+0.009 X1+1.013 X2 where Z=Skipjack catch; X1=wind obstruct at the second mounth for every kwartal X2=ENSO at the second mounth for every kwartal.