Proyeksi cadangan klaim dengan metode Munich chain-ladder

Abstract

Insurance companies are required to manage the appropriate claim reserves to cover the expenses of the claims that will occur in the future. One of the claim reserves estimation method that frequently used is the chain-ladder method. Because of the simplicity of this method, many insurance companies use the method to estimate the claim reserves in the future. However, the chain-ladder method is not able to reduce the gap between the projection of IBNR (Incurred but Not Reported) paid losses and incurred losses. The Munich chain-ladder is the development of the chain-ladder method introduced by Gerhard Quarg and Thomas Mack. The Munich chain-ladder method can be applied to reduce the gap between the projection of IBNR paid losses and incurred losses. This paper describes how to estimate the claim reserves using the Munich chain-ladder method and to compare the results with using the chain-ladder method. In addition, we provide examples of data, where the Munich chain-ladder method does not produce a good projection.