Analisis stabilitas sistem keuangan indonesia

Abstract

Sistem keuangan sangat penting perananya di dalam perekonomian suatu negara. Berbagai metode telah digunakan untuk dapat mengamati stabilitas sistem keuangan, salah satunya dengan membangun indeks agregat untuk stabilitas sistem keuangan seperti Aggregate Financial Stability Index (AFSI). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menilai stabilitas sistem keuangan dan mengamati fenomena krisis yang terjadi di Indonesia selama periode 2000-2011 mengunakan AFSI. Pergerakan indeks menunjukan bahwa secara umum stabilitas sistem keuangan Indonesia berada pada koridor financial instability atau kondisi tidak stabil. Validasi ekonometrik indeks dilakukan dengan menganalisis pengaruh indikator makroekonomi terhadap stabilitas sistem keuangan Indonesia menggunakan model koreksi kesalahan (Error Correction Model = ECM). Pertumbuhan volume GDP dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) berkontribusi positif dalam menciptakan sistem keuangan yang stabil. Pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar (M2) dan nilai tukar nominal berpengaruh negatif, sehingga dapat mengancam stabilitas sistem keuangan.

The financial system is very important in the economy of a country. Various methods have been used to observe the stability of the financial system, one of them by constructing an aggregate index for the stability of the financial system as “Aggregate Financial Stability Index (AFSI)”. The purpose of this study is to assess the stability of the financial system and to observe the crisis phenomena that occurred in Indonesia during the period 2000-2011 using the AFSI. The movement of the index shows that the overall stability of the financial system in Indonesia is in the corridors the financial instability or unstable condition. Econometric validation of index by analyzing the effect of macroeconomic indicators on the stability of the Indonesia’s financial system using Error Correction Model (ECM). Both the growth of the GDP volume and IHSG gives rise to positive contribution in creating a stable financial system. Both The growth in the money supply (M2) and Nominal Exchange Rate bring about a negative effect, so as to endanger the stability of the financial system.