Analisis Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia oleh Industri Minyak Goreng, Margarin, Sabun, dan Fatty Acid

Abstract

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is a vegetable oil derived from palm oil . Indonesian palm oil production are not accompanied by high domestic processing but many serve as export commodities. However, based on data from the Ministry of Industry in 2009 to 2011 the number of Indonesian exports gradually decreased. The decline in Indonesia palm oil exports in the period 2009-2011 due to external and internal factors. External factors due to the global economic crisis, and the saturation of the production of palm oil in the world market. Internal factors due to domestic palm oil downstream industry developing. This study was restricted to examining the internal factors causing the decline in Indonesia palm oil exports. The purpose of this study is to analyze the production of palm oil and palm oil production of downstream products, as well as to analyze the factors that affect the demand for downstream palm oil industry in Indonesia for palm oil. This study uses time series data from 1991 to 2011 year. Indonesian palm oil demand model by palm oil downstream industry estimated by multiple linear regression models and estimation methods Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Indonesian palm oil demand by downstream industries is derived demand (derived demand) of the company's profits that allegedly affected by input prices (real prices of domestic palm oil), output prices (real prices of downstream products) and total output (production of downstream products). The results showed a decrease in palm oil exports indicates that the domestic downstream industry began to flourish. Demand for palm oil in Indonesia's downstream industries significantly affected by the real price of inputs and the production of downstream products. In order to increase the production of cooking oil, margarine, soaps, and fatty acid and palm oil consumption by the downstream industry, the government should facilitate the loan interest rate subsidies and implementing tax holiday. The government should impose a tax or non-low duty on exports of palm oil downstream products.