Produksi dan Konsumsi Komoditi Pangan Strategis Serta Implikasinya Terhadap Swasembada Nasional

Abstract

Agriculture Ministry plans to revise the strategic roadmap self-sufficiency of food commodities such as rice, corn, and soybeans. Roadmap target is impossible to achieve as real production of each commodity is less than the target. The purpose of this study is related to self-sufficiency by 2014 projections and analyzes the factors that influence the production and consumption of strategic food commodities. The analysis was performed by multiple regression and time series forecasting. From the research, in general all projections of strategic commodities has not hit the target as the Ministry of Agriculture roadmap. Based on a projection of production and consumption in 2014, commodity that achieve self-sufficient are rice and maize. However, soybean has not been self-sufficient in 2014. The results of the regression analysis concluded that not all of the hypothesized predictor variables significant influence on the production and consumption of strategic food commodities. Variables that affect all commodity production are harvested acreage and R & D budgets. While the variables that affect all commodity consumption is the total population. Policy implications that need to be taken related to an increase in self-sufficiency and self-sustained, among others : the expansion of harvest area, the increase in R & D budgets, and a reduction in consumption per capita.