TinjauandanProyeksiHargaKomoditasPokokPanganIndonesia

Abstract

Sufficiency of food needs for human is important because it relates to the rights of citizens and human rights. The process of production ,distribution, and consumption is strongly influenced by domestic food prices. The contribution of food prices to the inflation in Indonesia is 79,61% (Statistic Center, 2013). Fluctuations in food prices is related to biological structure of commodities and agricultural environments, time lags in decision making related to the use of inputs until sell output, market structure, and policy impact. Information of food prices can be accessed to the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), Department of Trade and Industry (Disperindag), and Statistic Center (BPS). Standardization of daily food prices report made by Ministry of Trade Indonesia through Minister Decision No.522/MPP/Kep/11/1998. This regulations do not specifically regulate the location, the quality of the commodity, and commodity branded and non-branded. this problem cause food prices data among government agencies and private companies different each other. Research on food prices fluctuation and data synergize between government agencies and private companies is important to predict the price and formulating the optimal policy in the future .Every commodities in Indonesia has different characteristics of data, average mean value, and the pattern. Therefore , the best forecasting method for one commodity not always be the best method for another commodity . Based on these problems, the objective of this study are: 1) Analyze the development of Indonesian food prices; 2) Identify synergy prices between State Logistics Agency (Bulog), Department of Industry and Trade (Disperindag) , the Statistic Center (BPS) , and results of the survey in each region; 3) Getting the best forecasting method to forecast the price of basic food commodities in Indonesia ; 4 ) Forecast the price of food commodities of Indonesia in the future . The results showed that there are 7 commodities which have increasing price significantly. Those commodities are cassava (65,44%), onions (87,50%), red chili (70,39%), beef (41,45%), eggs (33,98%) , salted fish (29,06%) and instant noodles (30,68%). Some other commodities have decreasing price. Those commodities are green beans (4,3%) , Filma cooking oil (0,80%) , and Minyakita cooking oil (5,81%). The difference between the price data from Bulog , BPS , Disperindag , and survey results up to Rp 10.177/kg for the same commodity at the same time. There are 4 best methods for forecasting Indonesian food prices. Those methods are Multiplicative winters, additive winters, quadratic trend, multiplicative decomposition, and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Forecasting results indicate that Onion will contribute strongly effect to inflation.