Land Use Change Analysis and Land Use Direction in Mount Merbabu National Park and its Buffer Zone

Abstract

Mount Merbabu National Park is one of conservation area in Indonesia with ecological-overstress condition caused by population pressure. Forest land cover in that area only remains 30% and the rate of deforestion reaches 3% per year. Land use changes that occur indicate ecosystem changes that threaten the ecological function of the area. This study has four main objectives, that include the following : (1) to analyze land use changes in mount Merbabu national park and its buffer zone period of 2001-2013, (2) to analyze land suitability based on land physical properties, (3) to predict land use for the next 12 years, (4) to formulate scenarios wich can control land use changes. Primary data in this research is Landsat-7 image in 2001 and Landsat-8 image in 2013. The land use prediction model by the 2025 is Cellular Automata Markov method, that base on land suitability scenario. The results showed that there are seven main types of land use in the Mount Merbabu National Park and its buffer zone : forest, settlement, field, grass, shrub, unutilzed land and crop mix. Land use changes that occurred in the period 2001-2013 is the decline of forest, grass and crop mix, followed by the increase of shrub, settlement and field. The rate of deforestation in this period is 2,29% or 87 ha/ year . The prediction results showed that land use changes in the period of 2013-2025 has similar pattern with the 2001-2013 period. Forest decline is predicted to continue in all zones of the National Park. Settlement, field and shrub are disposed to increase, while forest, grass and crop mix are disposed to decrease. Scenarios to control land use changes in the National Park (TN) is directed to increase forest cover. There are two scenarios were formulated, first scenario assuming TN managers not allowing farming and settlement activities in the area of TN. Second scenario assuming TN managers implement zoning policies of TN Plan. The results showed that the first scenario predicted to increase forest cover and restrain deforestation.