Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Trade Balance Indonesia dengan ASEAN dan Tiga Mitra Dagang Utama

Abstract

Trade balance is a variable which forms the national income. During 2008 crisis, trade balance contributes the highestvalue, which is 40 percent. But during periods 2003 until 2012, Indonesia’s trade balance with ASEAN and three main trade partners remains a decreasing trend line. This study aims to analyze the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and analyze factors influencing Indonesia’s trade balance with ASEAN and three main trade partners for period 2003 until 2012, the analysis method used in this study is panel data method, with an annual time series data from 2003 until 2012 and cross section data (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philiphina, Thailand, China, Jepang, dan Amerika). Variables used are GDP per capita of Indonesia, GDP per capita of trade partners, rill exchange rate, Indonesia’s money supply, and crisis as a dummy variable. The estimation shows that all variables significantly influence Indonesia’s trade balance and have an impact which is consistent with the studies hypothesis.