Dampak Tarif Impor terhadap Pasar Jagung di Indonesia dalam Skema Liberalisasi Perdagangan ASEAN Free Trade Area

Abstract

Maize is the second largest contributior after rice in food crops subsector in Indonesia. The domestic maize production is unable to meet the high demand for maize. Therefore, there is a gap or an imbalance between supply and demand for maize, so that maize import cannot be avoided. The implementation of ASEAN Free Trade Area has been realized by reducing and eliminating tariff barriers. The purposes of the study were to: (1) identify factors that affect the supply and demand for maize, (2) analyze the impact of changes in internal and external factors on the supply and demand for maize, and (3) analyze the impact of changes in internal and external factors on the welfare of produsers and consumers of maize in Indonesia. The study used time series data from 1986-2010. Indonesian Maize Trade model is constructed as a system of simultaneous equations and estimated method using Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The elimination of Indonesian maize import tariff from AFTA or non AFTA countries leading to decreased producer surplus. Therefore, the combination of eliminating of Indonesian maize import tariff from AFTA and non AFTA countries, decreasing in the retail price of urea fertilizer, and increasing of maize prices at the farm level can compensate the decreasing of producer surplus so that the welfare can be increased (net surplus).