Spatial modeling of land use change in relation to spatial planning in Sukabumi Regency

Abstract

Sukabumi Regency population growth of 1,14% per year have implies a growing demand of land to be used as built up area and other urban activities. The increase in housing needs have resulted in land use change from productive agriculture into built up area. This study aims to: (1) analyze land use changes in the period 2000-2010, (2) analyze the factors that drive the land use changes, (3) predict the use of land in 2032 using spatial models of land use change, (4) formulate directives refinement for regional spatial planning (RTRW) Sukabumi Regency. CLUE-S was used to simulate land-use change based on the driving factors. The results of the analysis showed there is changes in land use in the 2000-2010 period. The most extensive land use decline is rice field that decreased by 15,8%, the land use that decreased too is oil 0,4%, forest 0,5%, and others 2,7%. On the other hand, the land use that extensively increase is built up area that rise to 23,9% and dry land that increased 3,4%. The main pattern in land use change is from rice field into dry land or built up area. CLUE-S prediction produced an accuracy of 91,25%. Alternatives of policy that selected based on the study for the refinement of regional spatial planning is : (1) environmental oriented policies can reduced 4,54% of the incompatibility between land use and regional spatial planning, (2) food security-oriented policies can reduced 4,64% of the incompatibility between land use and regional spatial planning, and (3) combining environmental oriented policies and food security-oriented policies can reduced 4,65% of the incompatibility between land use and regional spatial planning.