Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap Potensi Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Kabupaten Kapuas berdasarkan Proyeksi Model Iklim Regional

Abstract

Indonesia's forests located in Kalimantan are often burned due to high fire potential. Therefore, Indonesia often suffered from loss of biodiversity, financial, health, and production of oxygen. Accumulation of CO2 particles in the atmosphere is continuously increasing, leading to the warming of global and regional temperatures that could impact on the increase of forest and land fire potential. This study found that the meteorological parameter that could increase the probability of forest fires is the maximum air temperature with coefficient determination of 94%. Modeling of climate change scenarios using Regional Climate Model (RegCM) was conducted in this study to project the future change of maximum temperature in Kapuas. Short-term climate projections using RCP4.5 scenario shows the increase in the fluctuation and variability of maximum temperature. The average maximum temperature in 2010–2029 increased from 0.12 to 0.59ᵒC per four years from 2006-2009. This increase led to the increase of forest and land fires potential in the future. The number of active fires in Kapuas are expected to increase in the future from 0.5 to1.5 times of the active fire in 2001-2012 periods.