Analisis Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Inflasi di Jawa Barat

Abstract

West Java is the most populous province in Indonesia. That large population need the availability of sufficient food to achieve food price stability. Based on data from BPS Jawa Barat (2013), the contribution of food inflation to general inflation in West Java is the largest, in 2011 reached 0.93% and in 2012 reached 1.43%. Therefore, the price of food is an important issue in West Java. This study analyzes the prices of three main food commodities, namely rice, soybeans, and sugar. The data used are monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2012. The objectives of this study are: 1) to describe the development of food commodity prices in West Java using descriptive analysis; 2) to analyze trends in food commodity prices in the future in West Java using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method and; 3) to analyze the effects of food commodity price fluctuations on inflation in West Java using VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The results of descriptive analysis show that in 2009-2012 the price of rice, soybeans, and sugar have an upward trend. Trend analysis of food commodity price shows that during the next twelve period (in 2013), the price of rice and soybeans are likely to increase while the price of sugar fluctuates with the price difference relatively small. The IRF (Impulse Response Functions) analysis shows that in the long term, the response of Consumer Price Index (CPI) of West Java towards shocks in food commodity prices continues to increase. The FEVD (Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) analysis shows that the price of sugar contributes the most in explaining the variability of inflation in West Java, followed by rice, and soybean prices.