Sectoral Effects Of Monetary Policy

Abstract

The purposes of this study are three folds: (1) identifying which channels are effective for transmission of monetary policy; (2) assessing whether the transmission mechanisms at industry level are consistent with that at aggregate level; and (3) explaining why and how a channel becomes effective. The analyses are facilitated impulse response function (IRF) derived from a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Three channels are identified in this study: interest rate, real credits and exchange rate channels. The IRF results show that exchange rate is the only effective channel in affecting aggregate output and at least in five industries (the manufacturing industry; the construction industry; the trade, hotel, and restaurants industry; the transport and communication industry; and the finance, real estate, and business services industry). Meanwhile, the other two channels are not effective at aggregate and all industry. This finding suggests that there is some form of consistency between aggregate effects and industry effects. Moreover, the effect of real depreciation tend to be contractionary and thus supporting the idea of Krugman and Taylor (1976) among others. Output contraction seems to be associated with inflationary effect of the depreciation. This is a truly Keynesian type demand side story: following a real currency depreciation, purchasing power tends to weaken which then soaks the aggregate demand.