Analisis Produksi dan Konsumsi Kedelai Domestik dalam Rangka Mencapai Swasembada Kedelai di Indonesia

Abstract

Crops are used as the main focus of the food self-sufficiency target in 2014 are rice, corns, and soybeans. Rice and corns have been in self-sufficiency position, while soybeans have not been yet. In 2011, the domestic soybeans were only able to meet 29 percent of the soybeans demand, and the remaining, 71 percent were filled by the imported soybeans. Besides that, the soybeans demand will continue to increase along with the development of tecnology and knowledge, and the increasing population and income. Under these conditions, the purposes of this study were to forecast whether soybeans self-sufficiency in 2014 will be achieved in accordance with the government's target and what strategy should be taken to support the achievement of self-sufficiency in soybeans. The Projection covered forecasting of production and consumption domestic soybeans using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The forecasting results explained that Indonesia had not been able to achieve soybeans self-sufficiency in 2014. Forecasting of production domestic soybeans were 672.020 tons, while consumption domestic soybeans were 2.661.406 tons. It needed strategy increasing domestic soybeans production to meet the need of soybeans consumption. Efforts to increase soybeans production could be done by increasing the cultivated area and productivity.