Financial Ratios affect to Default Probability Analysis of The Banking Sectoring LQ 45 Group at BEI

Abstract

Bank is an entity that acts as a financial intermediary that puts the public funds entrusted to him, to be distributed back to the community in the form of loans and the business world at large in the form of credit. Outstanding funds through banks can be optimized to support the investment, which in turn encourages economic growth, improving standards of living and equitable development. Therefore, the banking operations should be monitored closely by the stakeholders. The purpose of this study was to analyze the probability of bankruptcy of the banking sector and analyze the relationship between accounting information in the form of financial ratios (APB, ROA, ROA, ROE, LDR, NPL, ATTM, CAR, and NIM) to the probability of bankruptcy by using KMV Merton. The Object of study is consistent in bank LQ 45 period 2009-2012 and bond issue. The data used for this study is a secondary data penel. Panel data (pooled data) is a combination of time series data over a period of four years, from 2009 to 2012 with the data cross of the four Indonesian Bank. The analytical techniques used in the estimation of Merton KMV model the probability of default probability(PD) and multiple regression analysis of panel data in analyzing the impact of financial ratios to PD. Processing the data in this study will use several statistical program packages such as Microsoft Exel 2010 and Eviews 6.0. The research result showed that the probability of bank failure Merton KMV models give an indication of the low level of bank failures with the highest rating of AAA, so PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, and PT Danamon Indonesia Tbk, worth be a place to invest. Meanwhile, PT Bank Pembangunan DaerahJawa Baratdand Banten Tbk (BJBR) has ranked B at the end of the period, in this ranking indicates that the obligor vulnerable to default, but still have the ability to meet its obligations. So BJBR remains a good to be a place for investment, but investors should be cautious to circumstances that may harm the obligor. The regression analysis,of financial ratios can be explained 88.44 per cent in the PD equation model. Based on regression analysis performed independent variables in a regression that has a significant effect on the dependent variable is ROA has a positive influence on PD in a bank listed in LQ 45 and ATTM has a negative effect on PD in a bank listed in LQ 45.