Pendugaan Kerugian Material Akibat Gempa Bumi dengan Metode Logic Tree

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to calculate the material loss caused by the earthquake using the logic tree method. The logic tree method requires a formula of ground motion, response spectrums, structural building damages and the probability of damages. The probability of damages obtained for each damages level of location was used to calculate the economic loss and the human casualties. The economy loss was calculate using the information of the costliness for each unit geographical, building area for each certain building type, the occupancy type and repairman or replacement cost for each occupancy type and building type. The number of casualties was calculated using the information on the proportion of casualties for each severity level, the building type and certain damage location, and the number of people living in each buildings type. The computer software SELENA was applied for Bucharest earthquake and concluded that median economic loss worth 189,741,404.470 Euros. Using the software, it obtained that the number of casualties about 319 person if the earthquake occured at 2 a.m, 36 person if the earthquake happened at 10 a.m and 54 person if the earthquake took place at 5 p.m. If the SELENA was applied to Indonesian earthquakes, then the software needed to calibrated using extensive data set including: demography, building types, occupancy types, and soil types.