Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) Subsektor Migas Periode 2001-2011
Abstract
Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) or non tax national revenues from oil and gas sector accounted for approximately 30% of Indonesia’s national income. PNBP from the oil and gas sector is important that its optimizing the factors that affect national revenues. Commodity of oil and gas is a non-renewable resource, but it still an important sector for economic growth and national energy resources in Indonesia. This study aims to look at the development of oil and gas sector and its contribution to PNBP, and to assess the suitability of assumptions and realization of PNBP of oil and gas, and to analyze the factors that affect PNBP of oil and gas sector in Indonesia in 2001-2011. Descriptive method is used to explain the development of Indonesian oil and gas sector and explains the achievement of the assumptions and realization of oil and gas non-tax revenues. Analytical method is used to analyze influential factors PNBP of oil and gas in Indonesia. The analytical method used a multiple linear analysis model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Estimated variables are national oil and gas production, oil and gas prices and cost recovery Indonesia issued by government. From the data of 2005-2010, the amount of PNBP oil and gas tend to fluctuate year to year. On the other side, Indonesian oil and gas production declined. In contrast to oil and gas production that likely to decline each year, oil and gas prices continue to rise. Cost recovery value increased each year also affects the oil and gas tax revenues. Improved cost recovery is not able to increase oil and gas production in Indonesia so that the value of oil and gas non-tax revenues fluctuate each year following the price of oil and gas. The magnitude of the assumption for non-tax revenue of oil and gas Indonesia is often different from the amounts realized. Assuming level of achievement with the realization of PNBP in 2005- 2010 by an average of 93.85 percent. This is due to inaccurate basic variables assumptions determining the non-tax revenues such as oil and gas production, cost recovery and oil prices. Average achievement of the realization of oil and gas prices were 87.93 percent. The average achievement of cost recovery is 93.01 percent. Oil production has an average achievement of 97.53 percent. Seen from the data, oil and gas price assumptions have the lowest achievement level compared to other variables. Variables that not significantly affect the oil and gas tax revenues is national oil and gas production, while oil and gas prices and cost recovery significantly affects. Probability value of t-statistic test for variable gas production amounted to 0.4658, variable oil and gas price of 0.0011 and 0.0698 for cost recovery variable.