Analisis Model Pandemik dan Prepandemik Avian Influenza pada Populasi Manusia

Abstract

Avian influenza is a viral disease caused by a virus within the subtype of H5N1 in which its transmission caused by birds or human. In human population, transmission process of avian influenza is discussed in the model called: bird model, prepandemic model and pandemic model. The bird model has two equlibrium points. These are saddle disease free equilibrium and stable endemic equilibrium. The endemic equlibrium occurred when the reproduction number of avian influenza is greater than one. In the endemic equilibrium, avian influenza may infect both bird and human. The prepandemic model has two equilibrium points. These are avian influenza dominant equilibrium and human influenza dominant equilibrium. The human influenza dominant equilibrium occurred when the reproduction number of human influenza is greater than one. The pandemic model has one pandemic equlibrium. The human influenza pandemic occurred when the ratio of human influenza invasion, pandemic invasion and the reproduction number of human influenza is greater than one, respectively. The avian influenza pandemic occurred when the ratio of human influenza invasion, pandemic invasion is less than one and the reproduction number of avian influenza greater than one, respectively.