Model for water resources conservation of LakeToba

Abstract

This study aims to design build water resource conservation model with emphasis on the technical study of the socio-economic aspects of ecological aspects involving extensive changes in land use, population growth, continuity of operation of the hydropower Asahan and some other aspects of the outer catchment. In general, intended to illustrate the balance ofthe water balance under the influence of land use and other economic activities. Analysis of water balance was constructed by the method of modeling dynamic system sthat are supported by Powersim software, where the method of using water availability FJ.Mock method with variables derived from the analysis of the ecological condition of the catchment area of Lake Toba. Then performed simulations of water balance and water level for the condition without intervention variables and intervention variables. Where the intervention variables performed pessimistic scenario, moderat and optimistic to provide an overview of conservation policy. From the simulation results on the balance of water and the lake water level was found in 2017 and the year 2057 the best scenario is between moderate and optimistic scenarios where the population growth of between 0.8% - 1.0% per year, infiltration coefficient values between 0.40 to 0.45, the value land cover factor between 0.25 to 0.3 while the flow of water being released into the Asahan River is 91,69 m3/sec in average.