Dampak kebijakan subsidi harga bahan bakar minyak terhadap kinerja fiskal dan pendapatan nasional

Abstract

The objectives of this study was to analyze the impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on fiscal and national income performance. A simultaneous equestions econometric model of oil fuel price subsidy was estimated using Two – Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1987-2005. The validation model of the oil fuel price subsidy policy used NEWTON method and SIMNLIN procedure. The government policy to increase oil fuel price subsidy showed that surplus of balance of trade was decreased, and the economic growth was decreased. However, the number of poor people was decreased because the inflation rate was decreased. The government policy to decrease oil fuel price subsidy showed that surplus of balance of trade was increased, fiscal deficit was decreased, and the economic growth was increased. However, the number of poor of people was decreased because inflation rate was decreased and income was increased. As the conclusion, the government policy to decrease oil fuel price subsidy was need to increase the surplus of balance of trade, decrease the deficit fiscal, increase the economic growth, and decrease the number of poor people.