Analisis Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum dan Ekstrim di Kabupaten Bogor

Abstract

The impact of extreme rainfall often cause serious problems for human being. However, the study of extreme rainfall is needed, so the impact of such extreme events can be anticipated as early as possible. This research aims to know the changes of extreme and maximum daily rainfall at some stations of Bogor Regency, and analyze the relationship between maximum daily rainfall with IOD condition (Indian Ocean Dipole) and SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). The analysis which used in this study are trend test using the Spearman Rank statistics and the probability distribution to acquire the probability of extreme rainfall and analyze maximum daily rainfall data with exceedence probability 5%, 10%, 25% and 50%. Correlation analysis was used to test the relationship between maximum daily rainfall with SOI and IOD. The results show that extreme rainfall occur in January, February and March, even occur in April. The most statistical distribution describes the maximum daily rainfall data in Bogor regency is Normal and Lognormal distribution. In some stasion, 3-Parameter Lognormal distribution, Gamma and Weibull can describes maximum daily rainfall data in dry season. The probability of extremes rainfall based on consecutively three day rainfall in region of this study is high enough, that is 0.80 at Gunung Mas, 0.23 at Katulampa, and 0.13 at Empang stasion. Generally, SOI and IOD significantly correlated and consistent on the maximum daily rainfall patterns in Bogor area in dry season and inconsistent in rainy season.