Kajian Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim dan Tata Guna Lahan di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Citarum Hulu terhadap Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air Saguling

Abstract

Saguling Hydropower has an important role in addressing electricity demand in Jawa-Bali region. To generate electricity, the hydropower utilizes storage water in Saguling Reservoir. However, due to rapid rate of deforestation, the hydrological cycle becomes uncertain as well as the water supply for electricity generation. The global climate change also affects local rainfall in the watershed. This research aimed to analyze the integrated impacts of landuse change and climate change in Upper Citarum Watershed on electricity generation of Saguling Hydropower. The SWAT model was applied to simulate hydrological cycle in the watershed while RegCM3 data simulated by CCROM-SEAP was used as climate data input. Statistical equation of inflowelectricity production based on different season (rainy and dry season) was also used to generate electricity data from inflow. It was predicted that between 2000 and 2025 deforestation will reduce about 38% forest cover in Upper Citarum watershed. This would lead to increasing runoff fraction and decreasing stream baseflow over subbasin scale. On the other side, climate change triggers rainfall alteration temporally and spatially that posses discharge input for hydropower. Collectively, climate and landuse change strengthen the risk of low inflow to Saguling reservoir, leading to lower electricity production.