Pemodelan Decision Network untuk Menentukan Pola Tanam Pertanian Dinamis

Abstract

Plants require different climatic conditions to grow well. The knowledge of optimum climate for plant to grow is essentially needed. The El Nino and La Nina phenomena affect the climate changes variability in Indonesia. El Nino causes a decrease in agricultural productivity due to the reduction in availability of water for crops. However, the La Nina phenomenon increases agricultural productivity due to the abundant availability of water. The strategy that can be done to solve the problem of climate change are to adjust the shape of cropping patterns and to forecast the season by using a Decision Network. Based on the Decision Network, the decision to select established cropping patterns is done using climate information and other obtained information before the decision is made. In this study, there are four information to be used. They are SOI index in August which can be used as an early possible indicator of rainy season changes, the length of rainy season, the rainfall in dry season, and the land area affected by drought. The objective of this research was to build the information model for agricultural cropping pattern by decision network. The data in this research were from 1965 to 2010. Cropping pattern can be used to produce a proper and accurate decision regarding to possibility of drought in areas. It also can be used to predict the possibility of loss amount that may arise. This study is conducted Indramayu District. The decisions are based on cropping patterns in Indramayu. The result showed that the model accuracy was 61.9% based on the relationship between the possibility of drought and drought data record in Indramayu from 1989 until 2009.