Dampak kebijakan fiskal pada sektor pertanian terhadap ekonomi, tenaga kerja, distribusi pendapatan dan kemiskinan

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of fiscal policy on the agricultural sector, in the form of input subsidies (fertilizer and seeds) and output subsidies (food) to the economy, labor, income distribution and poverty. The methods of analysis used are the Econometrics, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) Methods. The data used are the Input-Output Tables in 2008, Social Accounting Matrix in 2008, National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) in 2008. Policy simulations carried out were (1) fertilizer subsidies, (2) seeds subsidies, (3) food subsidies, and (4) combination of the all simulations. The impact of fertilizer and seeds subsidies policy can encourage real GDP from the expenditure side by rising productivity in aggregate output in both the short and long term, while the increase in food subsidies can rise real GDP from the expenditure side were moved by real household consumption. Fiscal policy in the agricultural sectors was able to have a positive on output of agricultural commodities, negative impact on output prices, and positive labor absorption in the short and long term based on rural and urban area. Redistribution of income and welfare happened to all poor households. The impact on poverty incidence, poverty depth and severity of poverty shows poverty reduction contained in the short and long term on poor households, the rural areas tend to be higher than in urban areas. In terms of macro economy requires that the reduction of poverty needs economic growth, so the both can not be separated. The implications are to maintain the policy which improved can increase subsidies magnitude and optimize the implementation so more effective, improving labor market and job creation which is labor intesive in both rural and urban areas, and needs the combination of micro-macro economic policies.