The Effect of Foreign Transaction Stock Return Volatility in Indonesia.

Abstract

This study considers component GARCH (CGARCH) model to decompose the stock return volatility of composite stock price index and sectoral stock price indices (three bigest market capitalization: finance sector, consumer goods sector, and mining sector) into permanent and transitory component in presence of foreign transaction. This study shows that an increase in stock returns at net positive position will be followed by an increase in transitory volatility components, but didn’t increase the volatility of the permanent components, both in composite stock price index as well as sectoral stock price indices. The increase in net position will result in increased volatilities (transitory component) is greater than the increase stock returns, both in composite stock price index as well as sectoral stock price indices. The effects of a shock that occured in previous stock returns in the consumer goods sector will disapper faster than the effects of a shock that occured in previous stock returns in the finance sector and mining sector, both in the volatility of the permanent components and the volatility of the transitory components.