Prediksi Perpindahan Penggunaan Merek Simcard dengan Pendekatan Rantai Markov

Abstract

Offering cheaper starter pack of simcard and cheaper tariff in GSM prepaid card constitute some strategies of telecommunication provider in costumer’s designation. However, there is a significant consequence caused by these strategies, i.e. costumers prefer to use cheaper GSM cards regardless to other factors. This condition will make customers easy to switch between GSM cards. This switching problem should be taken into consideration, if the telecommunication companies do not want to loose their costumers due to more expensive rates compared to other telecommunication companies. The aims of this research are to describe the brand switching of simcards by using Markov chain model and to analyze the characteristic of consumers of prepaid GSM cards. Cellular card that controls market can be determined from the most mobile card, which has the greatest probability of use. Meanwhile, from the transition probability point of view, cellular card that controls market is the card that has the greatest transition probability to itself rather than to the others.