Analisis Risiko Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue Berdasarkan Informasi ENSO dan IOD (Studi Kasus Pulau Jawa)

Abstract

Dengue fever disease (DBD) is an infectious and endemic disease that is increase doing in the beginning and ending of rainy season. The disease is caused by the Dengue virus that related with influence of climate variability, including rainfall. Rainfall is affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon. ENSO and IOD information will provide benefits in the determination of the dengue incidence rate, especially in the area which has monsoon rainfall type, like Java Island. However, not all areas in Java Island are affected by ENSO and IOD phenomenon. The objective of this study is to determine the influence of ENSO and IOD phenomenon with respect to dengue incidence rate in the form of a DBD area vulnerability map. The analysis is use correlation between ENSO and IOD against developed incident rate (IR) of DBD in Java. Then, the vulnerability areas using GIS (geographic information system). This study demonstrated that when ENSO and IOD was in the Positive 4 phase, most areas in Java are hyperendemic. After that, we predicted IR DJF with IOD and ENSO. The correlation between IR December-January-February (DJF) and IOD is 0.480 in cluster fourth of June. The correlation between March’s ENSO and IR DJF is 0,586 in cluster sixth. The prediction of IR March-April-May (MAM) is only affected by the correlation of November’s IOD 0,662 on cluster Sixth. Commonly, ENSO and IR haven’t a significant correlation and effect toward DBD cases in some parts of Java Island.