Modeling of urban forest for the amelioration of micro climate in Palu City

Abstract

Climate characteristic of Palu city is very specific, which is indicated by high air temperature and low precipitation. The objectives of research are : (1) to analyze the dynamics of changes in area and distribution of land cover types in Palu, (2) to analyze the relationships between dynamics of greenery open space area, temperature distribution, and the role and needs of urban forest to improve microclimate in Palu, (3) to develope dynamics model system of urban forest for micro climate amelioration, (4) to formulate policies that can be recommended for the development of urban forest in Palu. The research was carried out based on field survey, questionnaire, and expert judgement. GIS and Arcview approaches for spatial dynamic analysis, to develop dynamics model system of urban forest using program powersim studio expert 2005 version, to formulate policies that can be recommended for the development of the urban forest using policy analysis with AHP. The results obtained are: (1) for 13 years from 1997 up to 2010 was found that greenery open spaces have decreased from 80.4 % to 78.8 %, (2) the increasing greenery open spaces will decrease the maximum of air temperatur, significantly. The regression is Y = -0.1203 X + 39.51 with R2 = 0.503, (3) Based on the model simulation, it is predicted that the urban forest will be decreased in the future, (4) Base on results of AHP, it’s known that needs of settlement is the priority factor, government is the priority actor, environmental sustainability is the priority purpose and to improvement of regulation and the provision of green open spaces and plants were the priority strategy of development of the urban forest in Palu.