El Niño Modoki dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Perilaku Curah Hujan Monsunal di Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to investigate El Niño Modoki phenomenon and its influence to the monsoonal rainfall behavior over Indonesia. The study is also intended to identify the differences between the El Nino Modoki and the well-known El Nino events, referred in this study as Conventional El Niño. By using correlation analysis, it is shown that the El Nino Modoki Index, known as EMI, is strongly correlated with SST anomaly index in Nino-4 region. The correlation coefficient value is 0.57, which is higher than the EMI’s correlations with other SST anomaly indices from different Nino regions, i.e. Nino-1.2, Nino-3 and Nino-4. Temporal analysis on both Nino-4 index and EMI by using Power Spectral Density shows a different strength in the temporal cycle of both indices, where Nino-4 data demonstrates a strong 4-5 year interannual cycles, while EMI is dominated by 6–8 years cycles. This is consistent with the result of Wavelet analysis that indicates four years interannual cycles of Nino-4 index and nearly decadal (~10 years) cycles of EMI data. The composite of seven El Nino Modoki events in 1986/87, 1990/91, 1992/93, 1994/95, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, and 2009/2010, generally shows that the El Nino Modoki events indicated by the raise of EMI exceeding its defined threshold usually occurred from July to March. It is shown by clear characteristics of growing phase starting from March or April until January, and continued by decreasing phase around February. Based on the results of regression analysis, the El Nino Modoki strongly influence monsoonal rainfall over Sumbawa Besar, Makassar, and Banjar Baru during both June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON) periods, over Lampung only during JJA, and Indramayu during SON. The use of EMI which includes information about the SST anomaly around Indonesia led to a significant cross-correlation values between monsoonal rainfall anomaly and EMI with only maximum of one month lag time.