Analisis Hubungan Pinjaman Luar Negeri dan Kebijakan Fiskal di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is one of many developing countries that use foreign debt in its development. Foreign debt is one of aspects in fiscal policy. Accumulation of foreign debt every year has a relation with fiscal policy instruments such as government expenditure and tax revenue. Foreign debt also affected by economic growth and international interest rate. This research will discuss the analysis of the relation of foreign debt and fiscal policy in Indonesia. Analysis tools that used in this research are Granger causality method, Vector Auto Regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). VECM estimation model result shows that in the short term equation, foreign debt is positively and significantly affecting the debt itself, while in the long term equation, all variables significantly affecting foreign debt which are Gross Domestic Product, government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate. Gross Domestic Product positively affecting foreign debt. Government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate is negatively affecting foreign debt. Result of IRF shows the same result with VECM estimation model for the effect of shocks from Gross Domestic Product, tax revenue, and international interest rate toward foreign debt. However, result of IRF for government expenditure shocks shows positively affecting foreign debt. Foreign debt shocks is affected by the debt itself that contribute with higher proportion in short term. While for long term, foreign debt is affected by the debt itself and other macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product, government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate, but the effect of Gross Domestic Product toward foreign debt is higher than other variables.