Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and its Interelationships with The Monsoon, Dipole Mode (DM) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Southeast Asia and its Surrounding Waters

Abstract

Variability of air-sea interaction in the Southeast Asia and its surrounding waters has an important role for regulating the Asian and Australian climate dynamics and the dynamics of ocean-atmosphere in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The results of the first five largest variance of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean sea surface temperature between 1979- 2007 from data assimilation of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in the Southeast Asia waters are able to identify occurrence of the Monsoon activity, the period of Dipole Mode (DM) in Indian Ocean and types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The heat dynamics of the sea and atmosphere in the Indonesia waters are probably the triggers of DM and ENSO after performing spectral density function of EOF expansion coefficients, wavelet transform and composite analysis based on one times of standard deviation above positive and below negative of expansion coefficient using Earth System Research Laboratory-National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (ESRL-NOAA) dataset, including wind data, air temperature, air pressure, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), rainfall, precipitation, evaporation, sensible heat, latent heat and humidity. Schematics of the dynamical processes of oceanatmosphere interaction were constructed based on composite analysis results by discovering unique pattern which are called as phase of Asymmetric Monsoon of Southeast Asia waters (AMSA), Heat Storing/releasing of Southeast Asia waters (SRSA), Dipole Mode of Southeast Asia waters (DMSA), Tripole Mode of Southeast Asia waters (TMSA) and the Mixed Mode of Southeast Asia waters (MMSA) to examine more insightful of the relationships between heat dynamics in the Southeast Asia and the origin processes of Monsoon, DM and ENSO. The rest difference of heat accumulation of AMSA phase in the Southeast Asia are therefore led to a shift of Monsoon and triggering a biennial cycle of the Tropical Biennial Oscillation (TBO) associated with decadal cycle in the SRSA phase is the beginning of DM and ENSO activity. After couple times of biennial cycle, the remaining difference of heat accumulation in the Southeast Asia is getting bigger and needed a new heat balance that generates a trigger of DM period and some types of ENSO. At the DMSA phase was formed DM transition period and conventional ENSO pattern, the TMSA phase as DM transition period and Central Pacific ENSO spread type (CP El Nino/La Nina spread type) and the MMSA phase which coincided peak of DM and Central Pacific ENSO centralized type (CP El Nino/La Nina centralized type).