Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Management of Pulau Dua Nature Reserve In Relation to Its Buffer Area in Kasemen Sub District, Serang Municipality of Banten Province

Abstract

Pulau Dua Nature Reserve (CAPD) is located in Banten Bay on 06o01’05”– 06o02’05”South and 106o11’38”– 106o13’14”East under administrative area of Sawah Luhur village of Serang municipality. The function of CPAD is very important for about 108 species of birds where 38 species of its categorized as protected by national and or international convention. An area of 28,6 hectares mangrove as the main vegetation of 30 hectares CAPD leads important role as well as natural protection for 515 hectares of fish ponds, 2910 families and also support rice production of Serang and its surrounding. Topography of CAPD and its surrounding ecosystem are a gently sloping low land area with the highest contour is 4m above MSL. Due to this topography condition and located directly faced Java Sea, caused this area is very vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. Simulation models of sea level rise for scenario 25cm, 50cm and 100cm combining with contour map are able to predict the changes of ecological landscape of land inundation and economic losses incurred. Calculation of economic losses in this study carried out by using economic valuation method of mangrove ecosystem, as mangrove e is the main vegetation of CAPD. Sea level rise on scenario 25cm shown taht 427, 22 ha of fish ponds will permanently inundate and no more operates or about 5.699.542.020 IDR will be losses. On scenario of 50cm shown 535,60 ha fish ponds and 10ha CAPD will be loss with economic value losses is IDR 11.261.056.639. On scenario 100cm, about 569,54 ha area will be loss namely all of area of fish pond, 28ha of CAPD, village road and settlement. Area management strategy to answer this problem was developed through SWOT analysis on vulnerability level of natural, human resource and socio economic conditions. Through this analysis can be recommend an ecological planning method as the strategy of coastal management of Sawah Luhur village.