Dampak kebijakan desentralisasi fiskal terhadap kinerja keuangan dan perekonomian daerah di Provinsi Bengkulu : suatu pendekatan ekonometrika

Abstract

The centralized development process during the last period of 25 years, in fact did not lead to equally distributed development results among regions. It has becru@great consideration to implement regional autonomy in Indonesia based on Law No. 22 and 25 of 1999 after that complemented by Law No.32 of 2004 conce&llng Regional Government, and Law No.33 of 2004 concerning balanced budg~etween the central and regional government. S"The objectives of this research are : (1) to assess sources of regional incom~s, expenditure allocation, fiscal capacity, and income distribution among Distri~ and Cities in the region, (2) to analyze factors influencing regional econotjic and fiscal perfonnance, and (3) to evaluate and to forecast impacts of fiscal ~entralization policy on regional economic and fiscal perfonnances. IDbis study is using pool data (time series data of 1993-2003 and cross sectio&data of three Districts and one City). The descriptive analysis, Williamson Index,~ econometric model, and historical simulation using various policy scenari>s and forecast were used to analyze the data. The Bengkulu Province RegioIjU Economic model was developed into a simultaneous equations consis§ng of 26 structural equations, 17 identity equations, and estimated by using l wo Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. • QThe result shows that : (1) after implementation of the fiscal decentralization policy, the main sources of regional revenue is derived from the General Allocation Fund (DAU) whereas the Regional Own Income (PAD) were very less, the fiscal capacity were low, dependency on the central government were high, and improper income distribution among Districts and Cities; (2) the economic activities (PDRBS) will increase investment, however, if the interest rate, tax, and retribution increase on the contrary, investment will decrease; (3) after :fiscal decentralization, the regional economic and fiscal perfonnances in all Districts is most affected by reallocation of routine expenditure to agricultural sector expenditure, whereas in City an expansion of the DAU and infrastructure expenODure; and (4) the reallocation of routine expenditure into development expe~e on agriculture and infrastructure until 2010 will have much greate.r imp n regional economic and :fiscal perfonnances. • o increase the fiscal capacity, regional tax and retribution, and develo)ment expenditure expansion should be implementing. Whereas to increase the ~nal economic perfonnances are efficiency of routine expenditure in order to ~cp;ase the development expenditure especially aimed for infrastructure and agncuffi,lre sectors.