Dampak lingkungan usaha terhadap pertumbuhan investasi dan ekonomi indonesia: aplikasi model makroekonomi yang diperluas dengan variabel corruption perception index

Abstract

Investment in Indonesia is important and has been depending on Foreign Direct Investment due to lack of domestic investment capability. Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia is relatively low compared to Foreign Direct Investment in other surrounding countries. Indonesia with abundant natural resources but low investment fails to be high income per capita country. Many other countries with lack of natural resources have been successful to be rich and modem countries. This research was conducted based on this anomaly phenomenon. This research was intended to analyze the impacts of business environment variables on Foreign Direct Investment, to simulate the impacts of the business environment variables on investment and economic growth and to determine investment promotion direction before and after non economic variable of business environment is improved. Corruption Perception Index (CPI) published by Transparency International is used to proxy the non economic variables of business environment affecting Foreign Direct Investment. The CPI is used in a model to form a CPI Extended Macroeconomic Model. The model was then used to analyze the impact of CPI and economic variables of business environment on growth of investment, national income and other macroeconomic variables. The economic variables of business environment use infrastructure, fiscal and monetary variables. The parameter estimation results on Foreign Direct Investment equations showed that parameters of CPI and Infrastructure variables are positive. The historical and forecast simulation results showed that impacts of CPI and infrastructure variables on national investment and Foreign Direct Investment are responsive in the same direction. The results also showed that impacts of 1 % CPI increase on national income for historical and forecast simulations are 1.15 % and 0.68 % respectively. The increase of 1 % CPI can be achieved by building roads, electricity, telephone line and increasing private bank credit by 3.43 %, 4.08 %, 8.91 %, and 6.18 % respectively. The increase of 1 % CPI can also be achieved by reducing Ratio of Money Supply and Money Supply by -3.58 % and -4.93 % respectively. The forecast simulation results also showed that Foreign Direct Investment from Singapore and Netherland are not responsive to CPr. The Foreign Direct Investment from America, Germany, Malaysia, Hongkong, England, Japan, Australia, South Korea. and residual countries are responsive and positive against CPr. When the Indonesian CPI is still low, the investment promotion should be directed to Singapore and Netherland. The promotion investment could be directed to the other countries when the CPI has been increased.

Investasi di Indonesia sangat penting dan masih berguntung pada investasi asing karena keterbatasan kemampuan investasi domestik. Investasi Asing di Indonesia relatif rendah dibandingkan dengan Investasi Asing di negara-negara tetangga. Indonesia yang memiliki sumber daya alam yang berlimpah tetapi rendah investasi telah gagal menjadi negara dengan pendapatan per kapita tinggi. Banyak negara lain yang tidak mempunyai sumber daya alam telah berhasil menjadi negara kaya dan modem. Fenomena anomali ini yang melatarbelakangi penelitian ini. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisa dampak variabellingkungan usaha terhadap Investasi Asing, mensimulasi dampak variabel lingkungan usaha terhadap pertumbuhan investasi dan ekonomi Indoneisa dan merumuskan kebijakan arah promosi Investasi Asing sebelum dan sesudah perbaikan Lingkungan Usaha. Corruption Perception Index (CPI) yang dikeluarkan oleh Transparency International digunakan sebagai proxy variabel lingkungan usaha non ekonomi yang mempengaruhi Investasi Asing. CPI digunakan di dalam model untuk membentuk model makroekonomi yang dipeduas dengan CPL Model tersebut kemudian digunakan untuk menganalisa dampak CPI dan variabel lingkungan usaha ekonomi pada pertumbuhan investasi, pendapatan nasional dan variabel makroekonomi lainnya. Lingkungan usaha ekonomi menggunakan variabel infrastruktur, fiskal dan moneter.