Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan dan Peningkatan Permintaan Pariwisata terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Makro dan Sektoral di Indonesia

Abstract

The liberalization will offer renewed and enhanced opportunities to increase productivity and raise incomes. There are several bilateral and regional agreements on trade liberalization, such as the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) FTA. The end-goal of economic integration is establishing the ASEAN Economic Community as outlined in ASEAN Vision 2015. Consequently, there is a free flow of goods, services and investment, a free flow of capital as well as equitable economic development, and reduced poverty and socio-economic disparities in the ASEAN region. This study is examined the economy-wide impact of trade liberalization for the Indonesian economy by using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The impact of liberalization is examined via tariff reductions, combination tariff reduction and tourism growth. Tourism is a growing and important industry in both developed and developing countries. It is also an important source of earning foreign exchange and provides employment opportunities for domestic labor. Generally, tourist consumption in the receiving country is predominantly of non-traded goods and services. Tourism is increasingly becoming a significant part on global trade. It is one of the top five export categories, and accounted for almost 83 percent of countries in the world. According to the Indonesia Tourism Satellite Accounts 2009, total economic transaction created by tourism activity in 2009 reached Rp504,69 trillion or 4,80 percent of total output. This study has shown that liberalization combined with tourism growth can, in fact, reduce the domestic price level and increase the amount of foreign trade and availability of products in the domestic economy, thereby stimulating further production. The result of this study is improved the Indonesia’s macroeconomic performance and welfare, as domestic absorption, and household consumption increase. Tourists are also better off for they can consume more, given their spending level, and also benefit from the greater availability of products. The trade balance deficits are of concern, indicating the need for appropriate accompanying policies, such as the tourism promotion and investment in infrastructure, underpinned by the growing service sector.