Kinerja Perdagangan dan Dampak Free Trade Area (FTA) ASEAN Plus Three terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

Abstract

The trade liberalization is important issue in the era of globalization. Many countries establish a Free Trade Area, one of which is the ASEAN Plus Three FTA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the performance and the impact of ASEAN Plus Three FTA for the Indonesian economy. The level of trade performance of Indonesia were analyzed by examining the export performance through sector's comparative advantage in ASEAN Plus Three, Export Product Dynamic and trade integration with the ASEAN Plus Three. Furthermore, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the impact of ASEAN Plus Three FTA on the Indonesian macroeconomic and sectoral performance. Indonesia has a comparative advantage in a mining and quarrying sectors as well as vegetable and animal oil. Meanwhile, Indonesia has a high level of integration in manufacturing sectors, like textiles chemicals, rubber, plastic, machinery and equipment. ASEAN Plus Three FTA will generate a positive impact on several economic indicators such as real GDP, investment, government consumption and the household consumption. In contrast, the trade balance in deficit to the APT, but have a surplus to other countries. From the sectoral performance of Indonesia all commodities have increased imports, while only a few commodity exports increased.