Kegunaan data anomali suhu muka laut Pasifik (NINO 3.4) untuk prediksi produksi padi di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia as the third largest producer of rice still frequently experience the crop failure due to extreme climate events. The decline of rice production will lead to instability of food security since the rice price will rising and harm poor people who spend a larger portion of their income on rice than do wealthier member of society. This study aims to know the relationship between the rice production at each province in Indonesia with the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of Nino 3.4, which is one index of ENSO. The correlation between SSTA Nino 3.4 with paddy production ranged between 0.40 to 0.70, which means that the SSTA of Nino 3.4 data has a strong correlation with paddy production data so it can be used as a predictor. The correlation shows that if SSTA Nino 3.4 increasing (El-Nino event), the rice production on January-April declining, while the production on Mei-August and on September-December rising, it is due to the advancing of planting date. But the increase of rice production on Mei-August and on September-December are not as big as the decline on January-April. The provinces that their rice production are influenced by ENSO are the provinces which the rainfall type are monsoon. The best predictor for paddy production is SSTA September one year before. R2 of the prediction model for January-April production >40% which means that the model is good to explain the diversity of production data. While the model for Mei-August and on September-December production are not considered good to explain the diversity of the production data. It is expected that these forecast can be used by the governments and other parties who have interest in establishing a strategy in order to maintain the stability of food security in Indonesia.